BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINED, STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18542/cepec.v7i7-12.7076Palavras-chave:
Balance of payments constrained, Structural change, National innovation systemResumo
There is one major criticism about balance of payment constrained growth models, which states that the long run growth is determined by the average rate of exports in relation with the ratio of income elasticity of imports. If the income elasticity of imports is bigger than the average rate of exports, economic growth will be constrained. The empirical evidence about this approach, known as Thirlwall’s Law, can be found in several papers as Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), McCombie (1989), Moreno-Brid (2003), Lima and Carvalho (2009), and Britto and McCombie (2009). However, the approach does not have a complete consistent explanation about why the external constraint occurs. Some authors have tried to explain why the countries have their growth constrained using the Systems of Innovation approach, as Silveira, Romero and Britto (2010), Missio and Jayme Jr (2011), Jayme Jr and Resende (2009), and Silva and Hasenclever (2010). In their point of view, the main determinant of the deterioration of the terms of trade in an economy lies in the lack of maturity of its National Innovation System.Referências
ALONSO, J. A. Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case. Applied Economics, 31(2), 245-253, 1999.
ARAUJO, R.A.; LIMA, G.T. A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach to Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 31, p. 755-774, 2007.
BRITTO, G.; MCCOMBIE, J.S.L. Thirlwall's law and the long-term equilibrium growth rate: an application to Brazil. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 32, p. 115-136, 2009.
FREEMAN, C. The National System of innovation in historical perspective. Revista Brasileira de Inovação, v.3, n. 1, 2004.
GOUVÊA, R.R.; LIMA, G.T. Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 33, p. 169-204, 2010.
JAYME Jr., F.G. Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Economic Growth in Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, v. 23, n. 1 (89), Jan.-Mar. 2003.
JAYME JR., F. G.; RESENDE, M. F. C. Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: teoria e a experiência brasileira, In: MICHEL, R.; CARVALHO, L. (Org) Crescimento econômico: setor externo e inflação, Rio de Janeiro: IPEA, 2009.
LALL, S. (2000). The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-1998. QEH Working Paper Series, n. 44.
LIMA, G.T; CARVALHO, V.R. Estrutura Produtiva, Restrição Externa e Crescimento Econômico: A Experiência Brasileira. Economia e Sociedade (UNICAMP. Impresso), v. 18, p. 31-60, 2009.
McCOMBIE, J.S.L. ‘Thirlwall’s Law' and balance of payments constrained growth–a comment on the debate. Applied Economics, 21(5), 611-629, 1989.
MISSIO, F; JAYME Jr. F.G. Structural Heterogeneity, and Endogeneity of Elasticites on the Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth Model. Texto para Discussão No 425. UFMG-CEDEPLAR. 2011.
MORENO-BRID, J.C. Capital flows, interest payments and the balance-of-payments constrained growth model: a theoretical and empirical analysis. Metroeconomica, v. 54, n. 2-3, p. 346-365, may 2003.
NELSON, R. R. National innovation systems: A comparative analysis. Oxford: Oxford U. Press, 1993.
SILVEIRA, F.; ROMERO, J.P.; BRITTO, G. Mudança estrutural, sistema nacional de inovações e restrição do balanço de pagamentos: análise teórica e empírica do caso brasileiro. Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC, 2010.
THIRLWALL, A. The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rates differences, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Vol. 128, 1979.
________; HUSSAIN, M.N. The balance of payments constraint, capital flows and growth rate differences between developing countries. Oxford Economic Papers, New Series, v. 34, n. 3, p. 498-510, nov. 1982.
